Sunday, October 13, 2013

Re-A Strom That Wasn't - The PHAILIN UPDATE



TIME-8:55 PM - AS I WRITE THE STORM ‘Phailin must have hit the coastal regions of India as many parts of the Eastern India must be flooded with Durga Puja greetings. A part of my India is in pain and undergoing a natural disaster, hence the blog. Far away from family the other deluge did affect me to write what I feel. Parts in Behrampur, Jagatsinghpur, Gopalpur and almost half a dozen other coasts must have been hit and by now (Sunday-11:31 AM) the TV media must be busy assessing the damage.
9:30 - As I write no one (media, NDRC, NDMA, people, politicians and other relief operations group) members must be near the coasts. No one till the deep night crossing Saturday into Sunday, will get to know what happens exactly for neatly five kilometers off the coast would see, Not untill Sunday or Monday morning. Nobomi for Bengalis.
A Fisherman trying to rescue himself and the boat

Have been tracking the cyclone news since morning, the cyclone ‘Phailin’. The news reporting experience via TV in the age of social media was a different experience. REAL TIME> The NDRF has already executed one of the biggest relief operations in nearly two and a half decades, nearly 6 lakh or over half a million people were evacuated already. Last time it was 23 years ago in 1990. People evacuated from the mentioned coastal regions namely, Vishakhapatnam (VIZAG), Puri- the epicenter of the storm was Andhra Pradesh’s Srikakulam district.

TIME10:55- The MET department was hyper active lot and Mr. LS Rathore had to fix his spectacles again and again as he knew that the team has to hold at least three press conferences in less than 12 hours, quite commendable we must say. 


The MET REPORT
Time of issue: 1100 hours IST Dated: 13-10-2013
Bulletin No.: BOB 04/2013/38
Sub: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm ‘PHAILIN’ over Odisha
The very severe cyclonic storm, PHAILIN over Odisha moved north-northwestwards during
past 6 hours with a speed of 20 kmph and lay centered at 0830 hrs IST of 13 th October 2013 over
Odisha near latitude 21.0 0 N and longitude 84.0 0 E, about 50 km south of Sampalpur. The system
would move northwestwards and weaken gradually into a cyclonic storm by noon of today and into a
deep depression by evening of today.

Category
Warning for Odisha, Andhra Pradesh and West Bengal
Heavy rainfall: Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and isolated  extremely heavy falls (≥ 25 cm) would occur over Odisha during next 24 hrs and isolated heavy falls during subsequent 24 hrs. Rainfall at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls would occur over north Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, West Bengal & Sikkim during next 48 hrs.
Gale wind: Gale wind speed of 100-110 kmph gusting to 120 kmph prevailing at 0830 hrs IST would gradually decrease to 80-90 kmph by noon and further to 50- 60 kmph by evening of today over
Odisha. Wind speed reaching 60-70 kmph gusting to 80 kmph winds prevail over adjoining areas of  north Chattisgarh and Jharkhand during next 12 hrs and gradually decrease thereafter.
Damage expected over Odisha: Extensive damage to kutcha houses. Partial disruption of power and communication lines. Disruption of rail and road traffic. Potential threat from flying debris.
Flooding of escape routes. Extensive damage to agricultural crops.


State of Sea: It will be very high along & off Odisha coast and very rough to high along & off north
Andhra Pradesh and very rough along & off West Bengal coast during next 12 hours.
Action suggested: Fishermen are advised not to venture into sea along north Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and West Bengal coast during next 24 hours. Judicious regulation of rail and road traffic in vulnerable areas. People in affected areas to remain indoors.
 

Weather Reporting by national and regional News Channels- lessons from Uttarakhand Deluge
Weather reporting is not only challenging but it’s a costly affair as well. The news production costs are typically high and the chanells focus on one news because tracking a news (From the IMD- they predicted this on October -8th) till the formation of an event and ultimately to access the exact loss is a difficult affair. If the length and breadth of the coasts are as big as Odhisa and AP, then tracking becomes, even more difficult, tracking in the sense, the kid of human, infrastructural and economic losses. There could be speculation of economic losses (10-20 Crore, stated by the NDMA) and human loss (7 killed as of now).

Information Sources and controversies
If PHAILIN was a super storm, a cyclone, a twister or just a severe storm is yet to assessed but what is clear here is that the sarkari machines worked and predicted better than the others like the US NAVY, Euromet, Google Tracker and the Weather Underground. When we see CNN or a BBC reporting natural disaster, we can also see them citing sources from the places they seek information like YouTube, Google Earth etc, I didn’t see the Indian media doing this, it’s unethical and not right. The western media also make sure that the branding of the firm is right in place (boom covers, branded raincoats, umbrella etc) whereas the brave Indian media soldiers Rahul Kanwal of the Headlines today appeared so, but failed to live up to the expectations and failed to show some dramatic images. I shall wait when the National Geographic or a Discovery channel will come up with some tremendously dramatic videos before 2013 (my prediction).
The last known storm hit the Indian coasts was almost one and a half decades ago in 1999 and India has grown ever since. The July 2013 Uttarakhand flood forced us to ramp up our relief operations and we did and able to save lives.
•    15+26+6 Teams were stationed in AP and Odhisa
•    6 lakh people evacuated
•    30 Navy Doctors and physicians

Super C-130 airplane debuts
The big boy Indian Air Force's biggest transport aircraft C-17 Globemaster must have made significant contributions and the buyers of this giant can pat their backs. It’s an all American strategic transport aircraft, the Indian Air Force (IAF)'s latest acquisition. The Boeing Globe Masters costs India $5.1 billion and can lift 80 tonnes of weight plus 150 fully-armed soldiers.
What Did the Hercules to thwart PHAILIN impact?
•    Airlifted 60 troops
•    Participated in rescue and medical material,
•    Transported 6 medium and heavy vehicles and ambulance from Allahabad
•    Transported NDRF personnel and heavy relief equipment by IL-76s and AN-32 from different air bases across India.
•    5 Army columns comprising about 400 personnel ready for rescue operations.
•    2 columns will be deployed in Ganjam dist only.
•    500 CRPF jawans engaged in rescue and relief operations.
•    300 Army jawans, 50 navy doctors and 29 navy.
•    Indian Air Force inducts C-17 Globemaster, its biggest transport aircraft on September.

All details were written real time after watching and understanding several news channels from Indian and International media. Have tried to be as objective as possible.

Photo Credit- IAF, Google, blogs.WSJ and AFP

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